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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still